The impact of increased environmental stochasticity due to climate change on the dynamics of asiatic wild ass.

نویسندگان

  • David Saltz
  • Daniel I Rubenstein
  • Gary C White
چکیده

Theory proposes that increased environmental stochasticity negatively impacts population viability. Thus, in addition to the directional changes predicted for weather parameters under global climate change (GCC), the increase in variance of these parameters may also have a negative effect on biodiversity. As a case study, we assessed the impact of interannual variance in precipitation on the viability of an Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus) population reintroduced in Makhtesh Ramon Nature Reserve, Israel. We monitored the population from 1985 to 1999 to determine what environmental factors affect reproductive success. Annual precipitation during the year before conception, drought conditions during gestation, and population size determined reproductive success. We used the parameters derived from this model to assess population performance under various scenarios in a Leslie matrix type model with demographic and environmental stochasticity. Specifically, we used a change in the precipitation regime in our study area to formulate a GCC scenario and compared the simulated dynamics of the population with a no-change scenario. The coefficient of variation in population size under the global change scenario was 30% higher than under the no-change scenario. Minor die-offs (> or = 15%) following droughts increased extinction probability nearly 10-fold. Our results support the idea that an increase in environmental stochasticity due to GCC may, in itself, pose a significant threat to biodiversity.

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Dynamics of habitat changes as a result of climate change in Zagros Mountains Range (Iran), a case study on Amphibians

Climate change is currently considered a serious threat for many species and recognized as one of the most important factors in the global biodiversity loss. Among animal groups, amphibians are known to be among the most sensitive groups of vertebrates to climate change due to their inability to travel long distances, and mountain habitat species are more exposed to climate change pressures tha...

متن کامل

The Impact of Climate Change on Yield Potential of Maize across China

Maize is one of the major crops in China and its yield potential has been changedsignificantly by climate change induction during last five decades. The national policy of maizeproduction sufficiency emphasizes the necessity for a more accurate estimation of yieldpotential of maize at a national level. In this paper yield potential of maize was calculated usingthe Global Agro-Ecological Zones (...

متن کامل

The Impact of Bio-Ethanol Conversion and Global Climate Change on Corn Economic Performanve of Indonesia

Many studies conclude that the rise in global food prices due to higher demand from the development of biofuels, climate anomalies, and increased of oil prices. Not only the food commodity index rose more than 60 percent, nonfood commodity price index also rose over 60 percent and crude oil price index has increased even further above 60 percent. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impa...

متن کامل

Climate Change Impact on Quality of Life Indicators of Pastoralists (Case study: Rangelands of Haraz River Basin, Mazandaran province, Iran)

Climate changes pose great threats to the main services of ecosystems such as food security, water security and health. This research was carried out in Haraz river basin rangelands, Mazandaran province in the north of Iran in 2015-2017 to analyze the perspectives of Haraz river basin (HRB) pastoralists about climate change. From 5236 local pastoralists, the sample size was consisted of 350 one...

متن کامل

Modeling the habitat suitability of Botak-e-Fars, Cyprinion tenuiradius Heckel, 1849 and determining the impact of Climate Change on its distribution in Fars province

In this study, environmental and climatic variables were used as independent variables to determine the habitat suitability of Cyprinion tenuiradius in Fars Province and to investigate the impact of climate change on its distribution. Modelling was conducted in an R software environment using the MaxEnt algorithm. Based on the results, the performance and accuracy of modelling were good (AUC = ...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology

دوره 20 5  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2006